The red-blue map is deceptive. The shades-of-purple map is actively counterproductive. The area-adjusted-for-population (“cartogram”) shades-of-purple map is simply absurd.

1. Human beings are good at comparing shades of gray.
2. Human beings are poor at comparing shades of color.
3. Common forms of color-blindness render "shades of purple" indistinguishable.
4. Human beings are good at comparing lengths.
5. Human beings are poor at comparing areas.
6. Human beings are even worse at comparing volumes, so don't even think of going there.

What to do? Produce two maps: one in which percentage of support for Bush is represented from 0% (white) to 100% (black), and another in which the same is done for Kerry. When the data becomes available, do this at the precinct level.

If you really feel the urge to adjust for population, then on both maps, project each county/precinct up by the number of residents who voted for that candidate, and publish the results as a true 3-D map (QuickTime VR, VRML, whatever) that can be rotated and zoomed. Resist the urge to project the opposition candidate’s areas down; comparing the length of lines going in different directions isn’t a good idea either.

Update: Source of and links to a bunch of deceptive El-04 maps here.

Update: this one is much closer to useful than the rest, although the perspective makes it difficult to fairly compare populations (give me a 3-D walkthrough!). Thanks, Bill.

Despite the manifest failure of the pollsters to predict the result of yesterday’s election with any accuracy, today’s news is still filled with poll-fueled “explanations” of Bush’s victory.

I was never polled. There were no exit pollsters present at my designated voting location. There were also no monitors, observers, challengers, organizers, protesters, reporters, etc, etc. Just voters.

So, before you start believing the conclusions of the same pundits who were dead wrong yesterday, consider this Bush voter:

• Native Ohioan, current Californian.
• Age 37.
• Single.
• Straight.
• Atheist.
• Vaguely white (Native American, but never cared enough to fill out the required paperwork; also Polish, French, German, English, Irish, etc).
• Speaks some French and German, currently learning Japanese, lives in largely Spanish-speaking community.
• College-educated.
• Employed, earning over $100,000/year.
• Rode out the tech bubble just fine, thanks.
• Fiscally conservative.
• Believes in absolute equality of opportunity for all.
• Strongly supports war in Iraq.
• Strongly opposed previous war in Iraq.
• Frequent Libertarian voter.
• Voted for Schwarzenegger.
• Homeowner.
• Telecommuter.
• Pro-gay.
• Pro-gun.
• Pro-choice.
• Pro-drug-legalization.
• Pro-America.
• Pro-immigrant.
• Pro-diversity.
• Pro-environment.
• Anti-ecoterrorist.
• Pro-animal.
• Anti-PETA.
• Pro-hunting.
• Non-hunter.
• Passionately despises cigarette smoke.
• Pro-smoker's-rights.
• Pro-tort-reform.
• Motorcycle rider.
• Pin-up photographer.
• Adult products consumer.
• Habitual reader.
• SF fan.
• Anime fan.
• Comics fan.
• Music fan.
• Music purchaser.
• iPod owner.
• Mac user.
• PC user.
• Gamer.
• Poker player.
• Casino gambler.
• Dislikes beer and wine.
• Collects single-malt scotch.
• Enjoys cooking.
• Eats red meat.
• Dislikes organized sports.
• Hosts Superbowl party every year.
• Always carries a pocket knife.
• Always carries a Zippo.
• Has been on Internet since the Eighties.
• Goes barefoot or wears sandals whenever possible.
• Does not own a suit.
• Has not worn a suit in twelve years.
• Has shared breakfast with Hugh Hefner, at the Playboy Mansion.
• Doesn't much care for kids, but gives away Halloween candy by the half-pound to every little monster who stops by.
• Will drive 1,000 miles in a single day rather than take a plane, out of disgust for current airport "security" policies.

Kerry/Edwards never had a chance at my vote.

Now, Zell on the other hand…

Kerry and Edwards are determined to go down swinging, but down they’re going. Setting aside the inevitable frivolous lawsuits, their hopes are pinned on winning Ohio’s electoral votes, because they’ve already lost the popular vote.

Unfortunately, as of 5:09 AM EST, the vote stands at 2,791,912 for Bush and 2,653,046 for Kerry. That’s a lead of 138,866, with a projected 175,000 provisional ballots that won’t be counted until 11 days from now. Assuming that all of those ballots survive the inevitable challenge, Kerry needs to win 156,933 of them to tie in Ohio. That’s 90% of the expected new voters, just to muddy the results enough to make for a plausible lawsuit, and only if they’re all upheld as valid (which is highly unlikely).

Update: he’s toast. The official count of provisional ballots issued is 135,149, which is smaller than Bush’s final lead. It’s over, and the winner has a clear majority in both the popular and electoral votes.

Update: Highest nationwide voter turnout since 1968, first candidate to win a majority of the popular vote since 1988, and otherwise rational people are still saying things like “225 years is a pretty good run for a republic, historically speaking”. And that’s one of the saner sore losers I’ve seen today.

Just got back from voting. I had a 45-minute wait as the 30 or so people ahead of me in line deciphered the new connect-the-arrows ballots, but that gave me plenty of time to look over my fellow citizens, and I liked what I saw. Blue collar. Veterans. Parents.

And not a single parasitic “observer”. Just us citizens, exercising the franchise.

My official endorsement for President: Bush.

Why? Because the small percentage of his enemies, foreign and domestic, who are not already batshit insane will become so should he win decisively.

There are all sorts of things I dislike about Bush, particularly his domestic policies and the over-hyped but still real abuses committed in the name of “Homeland Security” (even though Gore would have done exactly the same had he won), but when it comes to foreign policy, there’s no contest. Bush has one, Kerry has none.

When claiming credit for kidnapping and murdering an American citizen in Iraq on your propaganda websites, try not to pick a victim who is alive and well and living in Detroit, and who would be very interested to learn how you got her name and an old driver’s license photo.

So if the new moveon.org ad bin Laden video is real, and current, and says what is claimed, then I think it is the most persuasive pro-Bush argument that has been made in the last six months. The only way it could possibly be positive for Kerry is if he can prove that it was written, directed, and produced by Karl Rove, with Bush working the camera and Cheney running the teleprompter.

I’m much more concerned with how much candy to buy for Halloween, though. Last year’s depressing turnout left me wondering whether I should go light and risk running out, or stock up and take any leftovers to the office.

And then I remembered The Bush Tax Cut, and stocked up. I’ve got about fifty pounds of assorted goodies in my big Igloo cooler, and I may run out to Costco tomorrow to buy some more.

Remember: Osama bin Laden is dedicated to the destruction of a society so decadent that it not only has four different kinds of Snickers bar (standard, Cruncher, Almond, and Marathon), but allows you to purchase them from an unmarried young woman who bares her face in public and knows how to read and write.

And he’s for Kerry.

Update: Walter Cronkite announced in a Larry King interview that he sincerely believes that Karl Rove “probably set up bin Laden to this thing”. I guess now we know what kind of smoke that whole “smoking gun” thing refers to.

What appears to be an op-ed in Germany’s largest newspaper is getting a lot of attention for endorsing Bush, and laying out the reasons he’s a better choice than Kerry.

My German is far too shaky for me to tell if this is the paper’s official endorsement or “the opinion of one of our columnists,” but either way I can see heads exploding on both sides of the Atlantic. This site appears to have an accurate translation of the reasons given in the article. It’s, um, refreshing reading, and far more sane than the hallway conversation I had today at work.